January 6, 2020
Join APICS-Chicago for this First Event of the New Year Economic Outlook 2020Having rung in the New Year it is once again time for the Annual Economic Outlook dinner meeting at Gino’s East (formerly The Millrose Brewing Company) in South Barrington. Join us on Thursday, January 23, 2020, for what has become a much appreciated annual tradition, when our respected speaker, Dr. Edward F. Stuart, will again provide his informative and entertaining take on current economic activity, and on some of what 2020 may hold in store. Economic news during most of 2019 has largely been about tariffs and trade, however there are still questions about the affects (or lack of affects) of Tax Cuts, especially for businesses, and deregulation — As of the Friday after Thanksgiving the DJIA closed above 28,000, GDP growth was at 3.1% in the first quarter, 2% in the second quarter, and 2.1% in the third quarter, with unemployment hitting a 50yr low at 3.5%. What will this mean for 2020? Will last year’s tax cuts further stimulate the economy, or will they prove to be a one time boost? Will deregulation, such as on auto emissions help control consumer prices, or will they create other areas of cost such as healthcare issues/expenses associated with poor air quality? Will signals from China result in settling trade wars and will that benefit the US economy, or has irrevocable damage been done, with the buying habits of other countries having shifted permanently away from American goods and commodities? Additionally, will slowing world markets throw our Economy a curve, or will the U.S. Economy be the stabilizing factor across markets? And what about more traditional concerns such as: The Fed’s monetary policy; another housing market crash and the chance of a recession; or will GDP climb and unemployment continue to stay low? With a gaggle of Democrats vying for their party’s nomination, during this next year as much as ever, the debate over economic policy will likely continue to be more about political policies then about economic forces. No matter the point-of-view, just as in past years, once again it is unclear as to who is correct and as to what should be done. Dr. Stuart has famously said, “We’re always in uncharted territory in Macroeconomics,” but given that decisions have to be made, and will be made, what should we use as a guiding star – even in uncharted waters? Specifically, will trade come back and hopefully grow? Will new tax rates prove to be an ongoing economic stimulus, or were they just a one-time bump? How will other global dynamics, such as a slow-down in Europe, affect the U.S. Economy in 2020? Is Recession a distant memory, or a threat looming on the horizon? Basically, the question is up or down – Which way will the US Economy be headed in 2020? Therefore, going into 2020 we once again turn to Dr. Stuart to provide guidance on the affects that the U.S. internal economic forces will have in combination with global economic machinations. As in past years, Dr. Stuart will of course have a full 45 minutes to define the current economic situation, and provide an outlook for 2020 – explaining his conclusions while cutting through Fed-speak, political hyperbole, and Economic calculus. You may recognize Dr. Edward F. Stuart, Professor Emeritus, Economics, Northeastern Illinois University (NEIU), from the WTTW program, Chicago Tonight, where Dr. Stuart is often called on to provide expert background on economic issues. Dr. Stuart earned his Ph.D. in Economics at the University of Oklahoma where his specialties were International Economics and Russian Studies. Dr. Stuart led his first trip to the Soviet Union in 1985 and has since led several student trips to Russia and Europe . Dr. Stuart has participated in educational conferences in Russia, was a Guest Professor at the Urals State Pedagogical University in Katerinburg, Russia, was a Guest Professor in China in 2016, and has been a Guest Professor at Salzburg College in Salzburg, Austria. Last, year, Dr. Stuart completed his audio / video course, Capitalism vs. Socialism: Comparing Economic Systems, which has become available for download from The Great Courses. Please register here.